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innovative aspect of this research was the use of the SARIMA (Seasonal
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model, a statistical technique commonly
applied in time series forecasting. This tool helped the scientists determine the
best-fit model to predict future density trends of the fruit fly.
The results revealed a seasonal pattern in the year-round density of B. dorsalis, with
an overall increasing trend from 2020 to 2025. In terms of future predictions, the
study forecasts a rise in fly density by 20% in wet zones, 30% in intermediate
zones, 26% in dry zones, and a notable 37% in arid zones by the year 2025. The
arid zone is expected to experience the highest density, while the wet zone is
predicted to have the lowest. The implications of these findings are critical for Sri
Lanka's fruit industry. With the anticipated increase in B. dorsalis density, especially in
the arid zones, there is an urgent need for effective pest management strategies to
mitigate the threat. Incorporating earlier research into this context, studies have
shown that B. dorsalis has a history of successful invasions in various regions[2].
The genetic aspects of its invasion process, particularly the population structure and
genetic variability, have been explored using microsatellite markers. These studies
have indicated that the fly's colonization process is linked to a stable demographic
structure, especially in areas with intensive cultivation[2]. This background information
supports the findings of the current study by highlighting the adaptability and
resilience of B. dorsalis populations.
Further, the genetic diversity and demographic history of the fly in India have been
examined, revealing a high level of genetic diversity and signs of recent sudden
expansion[3]. Such genetic diversity could contribute to the species' adaptability and
potential to thrive in different environments, which might explain the forecasted
density increases in Sri Lanka.
The rapid spread of B. dorsalis, previously known as Bactrocera invadens, in Africa
and its impact on agriculture has also been documented[4]. The species has been
observed to displace indigenous fruit fly species, such as Ceratitis cosyra, through
mechanisms like resource competition and aggressive behavior[5]. This competitive
edge could be a factor in the projected population increases in Sri Lanka's bioclimatic
zones. In conclusion, the study from the University of Ruhuna not only sheds light on
the current and future challenges posed by B. dorsalis in Sri Lanka but also
underscores the importance of proactive pest management. The SARIMA model and
QGIS color intensity maps offer a novel approach for visualizing and predicting pest
density, equipping stakeholders with valuable tools for strategic planning. As B.
dorsalis continues to spread, integrating these findings with global data on the pest's
behavior and genetics will be essential for developing comprehensive control
measures to safeguard the fruit industry both in Sri Lanka and worldwide.
- 347 -
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model, a statistical technique commonly
applied in time series forecasting. This tool helped the scientists determine the
best-fit model to predict future density trends of the fruit fly.
The results revealed a seasonal pattern in the year-round density of B. dorsalis, with
an overall increasing trend from 2020 to 2025. In terms of future predictions, the
study forecasts a rise in fly density by 20% in wet zones, 30% in intermediate
zones, 26% in dry zones, and a notable 37% in arid zones by the year 2025. The
arid zone is expected to experience the highest density, while the wet zone is
predicted to have the lowest. The implications of these findings are critical for Sri
Lanka's fruit industry. With the anticipated increase in B. dorsalis density, especially in
the arid zones, there is an urgent need for effective pest management strategies to
mitigate the threat. Incorporating earlier research into this context, studies have
shown that B. dorsalis has a history of successful invasions in various regions[2].
The genetic aspects of its invasion process, particularly the population structure and
genetic variability, have been explored using microsatellite markers. These studies
have indicated that the fly's colonization process is linked to a stable demographic
structure, especially in areas with intensive cultivation[2]. This background information
supports the findings of the current study by highlighting the adaptability and
resilience of B. dorsalis populations.
Further, the genetic diversity and demographic history of the fly in India have been
examined, revealing a high level of genetic diversity and signs of recent sudden
expansion[3]. Such genetic diversity could contribute to the species' adaptability and
potential to thrive in different environments, which might explain the forecasted
density increases in Sri Lanka.
The rapid spread of B. dorsalis, previously known as Bactrocera invadens, in Africa
and its impact on agriculture has also been documented[4]. The species has been
observed to displace indigenous fruit fly species, such as Ceratitis cosyra, through
mechanisms like resource competition and aggressive behavior[5]. This competitive
edge could be a factor in the projected population increases in Sri Lanka's bioclimatic
zones. In conclusion, the study from the University of Ruhuna not only sheds light on
the current and future challenges posed by B. dorsalis in Sri Lanka but also
underscores the importance of proactive pest management. The SARIMA model and
QGIS color intensity maps offer a novel approach for visualizing and predicting pest
density, equipping stakeholders with valuable tools for strategic planning. As B.
dorsalis continues to spread, integrating these findings with global data on the pest's
behavior and genetics will be essential for developing comprehensive control
measures to safeguard the fruit industry both in Sri Lanka and worldwide.
- 347 -
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