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America and South Asia, the pest has repeatedly caused crop failures since the 1985s.
Devastating: the disease attacks the wheat ear directly and can render the grain unusable
within a week. Now, countries such as Bangladesh and Zambia are also affected by the wheat
disease.
Up to 75% of wheat acreage affected
The modeling of the climate impact on the further spread of Wheat Blast paints a dramatic
picture: according to the study, the pathogen could reduce global wheat production by 13% by
2050 and thus drastically jeopardize global food security. South America, southern Africa and
Asia would be the most affected regions. As the team reports in the journal Nature Climate
Change, up to 75% of wheat cultivation areas in Africa and South America alone could be at
risk in the future.
Low risk for Europe
Even in countries such as Argentina, Zambia and Bangladesh, where the wheat disease has
only occurred on a small scale to date, the pathogen is predicted to spread further in the
future. Countries that have so far been spared by the fungus will also be affected. These
include Uruguay, Central America, the south-east of the USA, East Africa, India and eastern
Australia. For East Asia and Europe, the forecast indicates a low risk - with some exceptions.
In future, the wheat disease could also spread to Italy, southern France, Spain and the warm
and humid regions of south-eastern China.
Breeding resilient wheat varieties
The forecast makes it clear that the regions most affected by Wheat Blast will be those that
are already suffering the most from the consequences of climate change. In order to secure
the increasing demand for wheat and thus future food supplies in these regions, farmers will
have to switch to more robust plants to avoid crop failures and financial losses, the
researchers write. This would require the breeding of resistant wheat varieties. However,
according to the researchers, "the right sowing date" could also prevent "Wheat
Blast-promoting conditions from prevailing during the ear emergence phase".
For their study, the researchers combined a simulation model for wheat growth and yield with
a newly developed Wheat Blast model. Environmental conditions and plant growth data were
included for this purpose. The focus of the modeling was on the phase when the ear matures.
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Devastating: the disease attacks the wheat ear directly and can render the grain unusable
within a week. Now, countries such as Bangladesh and Zambia are also affected by the wheat
disease.
Up to 75% of wheat acreage affected
The modeling of the climate impact on the further spread of Wheat Blast paints a dramatic
picture: according to the study, the pathogen could reduce global wheat production by 13% by
2050 and thus drastically jeopardize global food security. South America, southern Africa and
Asia would be the most affected regions. As the team reports in the journal Nature Climate
Change, up to 75% of wheat cultivation areas in Africa and South America alone could be at
risk in the future.
Low risk for Europe
Even in countries such as Argentina, Zambia and Bangladesh, where the wheat disease has
only occurred on a small scale to date, the pathogen is predicted to spread further in the
future. Countries that have so far been spared by the fungus will also be affected. These
include Uruguay, Central America, the south-east of the USA, East Africa, India and eastern
Australia. For East Asia and Europe, the forecast indicates a low risk - with some exceptions.
In future, the wheat disease could also spread to Italy, southern France, Spain and the warm
and humid regions of south-eastern China.
Breeding resilient wheat varieties
The forecast makes it clear that the regions most affected by Wheat Blast will be those that
are already suffering the most from the consequences of climate change. In order to secure
the increasing demand for wheat and thus future food supplies in these regions, farmers will
have to switch to more robust plants to avoid crop failures and financial losses, the
researchers write. This would require the breeding of resistant wheat varieties. However,
according to the researchers, "the right sowing date" could also prevent "Wheat
Blast-promoting conditions from prevailing during the ear emergence phase".
For their study, the researchers combined a simulation model for wheat growth and yield with
a newly developed Wheat Blast model. Environmental conditions and plant growth data were
included for this purpose. The focus of the modeling was on the phase when the ear matures.
- 685 -
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