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BREEDING LIKELY IN NORTHEAST ETHIOPIA
OVERVIEW. Aerial control operations continue against a few small immature
swarms on the plateau in northwest Somalia while one swarm was seen in the
northeast. Limited swarm breeding is thought to be underway in northern
Ethiopia where good rains have fallen, but the security situation has
deteriorated in the Afar region during the past week, hampering survey and
control operations by air and ground. In Yemen, small-scale breeding is
underway in the interior. Elsewhere, the situation remains calm, and no
significant developments are likely.
WHY IT MATTERS. Swarms are not likely to move from Ethiopia and Somalia
to Eritrea, Sudan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia now. Instead, the swarms in
northern Somalia may move back and forth across the Ethiopia/Somalia border
where they are likely to persist and remain immature due to dry conditions.
The mature swarms in northeast Ethiopia will finish laying eggs in areas of
recent rain, including adjacent areas of southern Djibouti. Hatching and band
formation are expected to take place this month in Afar, causing locust
numbers to increase and leading to the formation of new immature swarms
from late September onwards. Although the scale of the anticipated breeding
will be much smaller than in the past two years, if the necessary survey and
control operations cannot be carried out safely in Afar, then a greater number
of swarms are likely to form than originally anticipated that would migrate
east and threaten eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia in October.
CONTEXT. Continued insecurity could prolong the current upsurge in the Horn
of Africa.
? SOMALIA. Aerial control operations continue against a low number of
immature swarms that persist on the plateau in the northwest (Somaliland). At
least one small swarm moved east to the northeast (Puntland) in the past
week. A few swarms are likely to stay on the plateau and remain immature.
? ETHIOPIA. Low numbers of mature swarms are likely to be present and
laying eggs in areas of recent rainfall in Afar with hatching and band formation
imminent. However, most all areas can no longer be accessed due to a recent
deterioration in security.
? YEMEN. Good rains fell in parts of the interior and small-scale breeding is
underway with a few groups of hoppers and adults; no invasions are expected.
? SUDAN. Scattered adults in the interior where small-scale breeding will
occur; no invasions are expected.
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