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These include flood forecasting, risk mapping, observation and forecasting, and communication
and dissemination.
1. Flood forecasting
Efforts have been made to advance the provision of flood forecasting by the Kenya
Meteorological Department. Kenya relies on heavy rainfall advisories provided by the national
weather service and by the Climate Prediction and Application Center of the regional
Intergovernmental Authority on Development. Rainfall greater than 50mm in 24 hours is in
most cases used as a proxy for flood early warning and preparedness. These alerts contain
information on areas (counties) that are likely to receive such rainfall and be affected by
flooding.
Some scholars have questioned the appropriateness of heavy rainfall advisories for flood
preparedness. But I believe they had value for both government and humanitarian
organizations during the recent flood events in Kenya.
A far more accurate tool is a system that predicts the occurrence, magnitude, timing and
duration of floods in a specific area. Kenya has 21 documented areas that are prone to
flooding.
Each of the 21 hotspots should ideally have a flood forecast system, but only one exists: for
the Nzoia river in the Lake Victoria basin. Flood forecasts here are provided three days in
advance.
There are no operational flood forecast systems for Kenya's cities, including Nairobi and
Mombasa. There is therefore a need to expand early warning systems to cover areas identified
by the national masterplan.
2. National risk mapping
There is limited knowledge of the most flood prone areas across the country, which poses a
challenge during flood preparedness and response. Exposure and vulnerability can change, too.
Better flood risk mapping is needed across the country through use of Earth observations and
high resolution elevation data.
These would map the elevation of water courses?information that falls under the Water
Resources Authority through technical support from the Kenya Water Security & Resilience
Project. The river elevation information can then be combined with population settlement data
and flood forecasts provided by Kenya Meteorological Department. This would then inform
impact based forecasting, a shift from what the flood will look like to what the flood can do.
3. Observation and forecasting
All forecasts are as good as the amount and quality of observed data. The density of
hydro-meteorological networks in Kenya, as in the rest of Africa, is relatively low, with only 38
land based weather stations, which is barely 12.5% of the minimum recommended density.
There are efforts to increase the density of the African network but more investment will be
needed. Kenya also needs to invest in weather radar observations which can detect heavy
storms. This is especially useful for urban centers such as Nairobi.
Using global flood forecasts of up to 30 days, such as Copernicus (password required), would
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and dissemination.
1. Flood forecasting
Efforts have been made to advance the provision of flood forecasting by the Kenya
Meteorological Department. Kenya relies on heavy rainfall advisories provided by the national
weather service and by the Climate Prediction and Application Center of the regional
Intergovernmental Authority on Development. Rainfall greater than 50mm in 24 hours is in
most cases used as a proxy for flood early warning and preparedness. These alerts contain
information on areas (counties) that are likely to receive such rainfall and be affected by
flooding.
Some scholars have questioned the appropriateness of heavy rainfall advisories for flood
preparedness. But I believe they had value for both government and humanitarian
organizations during the recent flood events in Kenya.
A far more accurate tool is a system that predicts the occurrence, magnitude, timing and
duration of floods in a specific area. Kenya has 21 documented areas that are prone to
flooding.
Each of the 21 hotspots should ideally have a flood forecast system, but only one exists: for
the Nzoia river in the Lake Victoria basin. Flood forecasts here are provided three days in
advance.
There are no operational flood forecast systems for Kenya's cities, including Nairobi and
Mombasa. There is therefore a need to expand early warning systems to cover areas identified
by the national masterplan.
2. National risk mapping
There is limited knowledge of the most flood prone areas across the country, which poses a
challenge during flood preparedness and response. Exposure and vulnerability can change, too.
Better flood risk mapping is needed across the country through use of Earth observations and
high resolution elevation data.
These would map the elevation of water courses?information that falls under the Water
Resources Authority through technical support from the Kenya Water Security & Resilience
Project. The river elevation information can then be combined with population settlement data
and flood forecasts provided by Kenya Meteorological Department. This would then inform
impact based forecasting, a shift from what the flood will look like to what the flood can do.
3. Observation and forecasting
All forecasts are as good as the amount and quality of observed data. The density of
hydro-meteorological networks in Kenya, as in the rest of Africa, is relatively low, with only 38
land based weather stations, which is barely 12.5% of the minimum recommended density.
There are efforts to increase the density of the African network but more investment will be
needed. Kenya also needs to invest in weather radar observations which can detect heavy
storms. This is especially useful for urban centers such as Nairobi.
Using global flood forecasts of up to 30 days, such as Copernicus (password required), would
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